Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Is There a Market for Jeremy Affeldt?




It is a little peculiar that the Giants are looking at trading Affeldt right after picking up his option, especially considering his relatively high salary at $5 million for this season but I guess the front office has had a change of heart or think the market for relievers has changed enough that flipping him might make sense.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Baseball America's Giants 2012 Top 10 Prospects


The Baseball America digital edition landed in my inbox this afternoon and I was quite happy that this issue was the NL West Prospect preview.

The Giants top 10 list is a bit different than the one that I was putting together but the Baseball America scouts did have some nice things to say about the Giants prospects.

Here is the top 10 list and a bit of the future blurb for each:

Giants to Revive Classic 80's Uniforms



Some pretty cool news for those that enjoy the sport of uniform watching, according to SportsLogos.net the Giants will be bringing back an updated version of the interlocking "SF" jersey that they wore from 1983 to 1993.

Giants Extend Brian Sabean, Bruce Bochy




Well I can't say that this news was unexpected, this was pretty much going to happen no matter what baring some sort of major scandal.

While I have a certain times not been thrilled with both of these guys (Brian Sabean more than Bruce Bochy) they both have some good points that are nice to have around.

Get ready for more bad middle tier free agent signings because the rainy day fund means top tier talent off limits. Get ready for more crazy lineup shuffles based on small sample fluxuations and prospect mishandling. It should be another maddening couple of seasons but hey maybe lightening in a bottle can be caught again.

I could have more outrage but it is hard to get mad about something that you know is coming. This announcement is like when Monday rolls around after a fun weekend, you knew it was coming, it sucks but you're aren't really mad about it.

There we go Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy, they are like a case of the Monday's. If only this announcement came yesterday.

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Thursday, November 24, 2011

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving. I have lots to be thankful for this year.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

2011 in Review: Relief Pitcher Vertical Vector Charts



Click to enlarge
Continuing with the vector charts series that I started earlier today (based on this from Athletics Nation) here are the relief pitchers stats visualized awesomely.

If you need a refresher here is how to look at the graph:

Each line corresponds to a Giants relief pitcher. The angle of each vector corresponds to the pitcher's GB percent with 100 percent ground balls as a horizontal line and 100 percent fly balls the opposite (duh) and represented as a vertical line, and the middle between the two extremes (50 percent ground ball rate) represented as a 45° angle.

The length of the line corresponds to the pitchers FIP-, where 100 is equal to league average and each point below is equal to a percent better than league average. So an FIP- of 75 means that the pitcher FIP was 25 percent better than league average. So in this chart a shorter line means that the pitcher pitched better which is kind of counter intuitive for how we would normally look at things.

Sergio Romo is the tiny, tiny line which is pretty amazing. The rest of the Giants relievers come in around 80 which is still really good and finally there are the two outliers Steve Edlefsen and Barry Zito but neither pitcher pitched many innings in relief so it didn't kill the Giants bullpen much.

Unlike the starting pitchers the relievers are not as fly ball heavy with 7 guys who were at the 50 percent mark or higher for ground balls with just Romo being the only guy who would be considered an extreme fly ball pitcher.

Up next will be the Giants hitters.

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2011 in Review: Starting Pitcher Vertical Vector Charts


Click to enlarge
I got this idea from the guys over at Athletics Nation and thought it was pretty cool way to visualize data. Here is how it works:

Each line corresponds to a Giants starting pitcher. The angle of each vector corresponds to the pitcher's GB percent with 100 percent ground balls as a horizontal line and 100 percent fly balls the opposite (duh) and represented as a vertical line, and the middle between the two extremes (50 percent ground ball rate) represented as a 45° angle.

The length of the line corresponds to the pitchers FIP-, where 100 is equal to league average and each point below is equal to a percent better than league average. So an FIP- of 75 means that the pitcher FIP was 25 percent better than league average. So in this chart a shorter line means that the pitcher pitched better which is kind of counter intuitive for how we would normally look at things.

The stats here are just for games that the pitcher started a game so Dan Runzler has just one game in this sample and Ryan Vogelsong's 4.2 relief innings are also not included here.

What we do see is that the Giants main four starting pitchers this season were all very good, the other guys that started games for the team were not. We can also see that Giants pitchers do there best to maximize their spacious home ball park with only Runzer (and his one game sample) going above the 50 percent mark for ground balls.

Later I will make one for the relief pitchers and hitters.

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Monday, November 21, 2011

Giants End of Season Review: Out Fielders


Up next in the end of season reviews are the guys that played the outfield for the Giants. Overall there was a bunch of injuries and a disappointing lack of production in total.

Just about everyone played below what I projected them in the beginning of the season and those weren't the rosiest of projections to start off with.

Cody Ross

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
Projection
0.267
0.320
0.439
68
30
2
17
71
7
Actual
0.240
0.325
0.405
54
25
0
14
52
5

Ross actually managed to put together a half way decent season, the only problem was that it would be half way decent for a 4th out fielder and not a guy that a team is expecting to be a starter. Part of the problem is that his crazy post season I think raised the expectations for fans to an unreasonable level.

With free agency approaching I am not sure the he will be back and that is a bit of a disappointment because he seems be a good 4th out fielder to have around with his ability to play averageish defense at all 3 spots and hit lefties well.

I can understand not bringing him back though because the Giants seem to have an abundance of guys who are almost good enough to be full time out fielders and would make nice 4th out fielders on most team.s

Nate Schierholtz

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
Projection
0.259
0.315
0.406
40
18
4
5
29
5
Actual
0.278
0.326
0.430
42
22
1
9
41
7

After years and years of rosy projections it seems that maybe Shierholtz finally was able to put together a pretty nice season.

It was a huge disappointment when he went down at the end of August and was one of the many Giants that got hurt during their melt down but his injury lingered and he was unable to return.

I still see Schierholtz as a fringe starter who just might not have enough bat to play a corner out field spot but he was starting to convince me that he might be able to handle a starting role. I would still prefer the Giants get a quality hitter that they can install into one of the corner spots but the tea leaves seem to point to that not happening. So I guess Shierholtz is a decent fall back guy because hey at least it isn't Aaron Rowand.

Andres Torres

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
Projection
0.264
0.334
0.442
77
32
8
13
53
22
Actual
0.221
0.312
0.330
50
24
1
4
19
19

I wanted so badly to believe that Torres was not just a one year wonder and that he would be able to continue his improbable out of no where career. Well it appears that I was wrong and from the reports coming out the Giants front office Torres is on the bubble for being even tendered a contract this coming season.

After a leg injury sidelined him for nearly a month in March it was steadily down hill from there where he just never got going with the bat. Over the course of the season it came out that he was struggling with his ADD medication and also having trouble sleeping which probably didn't help things.

He is still an elite fielder and a good base runner but his power outage is a reason for concern. I would like to have him back because if he can have a bit of a bounce back he could be quite valuable and at worst he could be a great 4th out fielder (see lots of guys who can fill the role). With this being just his second year of arbitration he is going to be significantly cheaper than Ross if the Giants bring him back which I think they should.

Aaron Rowand

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
Projection
0.250
0.309
0.398
49
20
1
12
45
5
Actual
0.233
0.274
0.347
34
22
2
4
21
2

Much to the delight of Giants fans everywhere the Rowand era came to an end last year. It was a little bit late but hey at least we don't have to have a Parental Advisory warning before each of his at bats any more.

Last season Rowand was worse than my already low expectations. Rowand put up a career low in walks and a career high in strikeouts and seemed to have lost about all ability to recognize a breaking ball. It baffles me that pitchers threw him anything but a slider all season.

The on going legacy of Aaron Rowand is that the Giants will continue to pay him this season and that is probably one of the many excuses that they will use as to why they are unable to improve some of their glaring holes in the out field and short stop.

Thanks for the memories Aaron.

Pat Burrell

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
2011 Projections
0.243
0.344
0.451
57
23
1
21
71
0
Actual
0.230
0.352
0.404
17
9
1
7
20
0

This was likely Burrell's last season and it was kind of sad to see him go out with a foot injury that sidelined him since the beginning of July.

I have a serious crush on Burrell after last season and even this year with his incredibly team friendly deal he was a steal with his awesome three true outcome ability.

It was a great story to have the local kid comeback and be redeemed while being a big part of a championship. I really hopes that he is able to find a job in baseball, can you imagine if he could teach his plate discipline to some of these Giants hitters?

Brandon Belt

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
Projection
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Actual
0.225
0.306
0.412
21
6
1
9
18
3

Belt was put on the yo-yo development plan and surprise surprise it didn't work out too well for him.

With the uneven playing time due to front office yo-yoing and a broken wrist Belt struggled to make contact with major league pitching. He continued to excel against guys in AAA but still had some issues with MLB breaking balls. I think that will just take time and him keeping his mechanics consistent (from his crouch if he raises up he will swing and miss over the top of breaking balls which seemed to be the case too much this season).

There were lots of good signs from his season, his power is legit. He hit 9 homers in 209 plate appearances and if given a full season he looks like a guy who can hit 25-30 homers on a regular basis. That combined with his plus defense at first base, excellent eye and I think his ability to hit major league pitching makes me even more excited for him.

I just hope that he is given a shot next year that isn't dependent on him hitting like crazy right out of the gate because I think he really started to feel the pressure that the Giants were putting on him to perform in those small samples.

Carlos Beltran

BA
OBP
SLG
R
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
Projection
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Actual
0.323
0.369
0.551
17
9
4
7
18
1

I think that Beltran's success willl be lost in the Giants meltdown where Beltran was too hurt to play during the Giants collapse where they fell from first place.

He was a very good player, he played up to the price tag (even if it wasn't the trade was a bad idea) and was the middle of the order bat that Giants wanted. The problem was that the team still didn't have enough to put around him to make a bad offense good enough to make the playoffs.

I would love to have Beltran back in 2012 but I think the odds of that are nearly zero with the rainy day fund needing filling and the Giants wanting to pinch their pennies. That doesn't take anything away when you imagine a Beltran, Posey, Sandoval, Belt middle of the order. Man that sounds nice. I might just stay in dreamland a little while longer just so I don't have to loose a guy with a .360+ OBP.

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