The early story of the spring, at least for me, is that is hitting and hitting with authority.

Last season, DeRosa was a bust. His surgically repaired wrist never recovered and it sapped his power so that he was just a shell of his former self. I was concerned that the problem may not have been resolved and that DeRosa would never amount to anything.

After eight spring at bats (please take with a heavy grain of salt), DeRosa looks like a different hitter. Last season, DeRosa couldn't pull the ball at all. That trend seems to be reversing, with DeRosa hitting the ball with authority to his pull side.

If things continue this way, the Giants could be in good shape with DeRosa playing the super utility role that keeps everyone fresh. You know, that role that he was supposed to play when they signed him last year.

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Next in line for the Giants 2011 projections is the newly minted #2 starter, .

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

Year	ERA	W	L	IP	H	HR	BB	K
2011 Projection	3.39	12	10	184	149	20	91	185
Best Case	2.72	14	8	221	179	24	95	235
Worst Case	4.07	9	12	148	119	16	110	125

Sanchez is a frustrating guy to project. At times he is absolutely unhittable and looks like the second coming of . At other times, he can't find the strike zone and you wonder if he is worth the headache.

If you've followed the Giants, this shouldn't come as a surprise to you, as this is the main complaint lodged against him. Last season, I wrote a little bit about his up's and down's and I imagine that this season will be filled with them as well.

If he can get a little more control and not lose the mental focus, he could have ace type stuff. Lefties with strikeout stuff don't come around that often. Since 2000, only 13 left-handed pitchers have thrown 150+ while striking out at least a batter an inning. One of them is Sanchez, who has accomplished this the last 2 seasons.

If he puts things together for the whole season, the ceiling is a Cy Young. He has the talent that's never been in question. More realistically, he is a solid above average pitcher who will be very frustrating to watch at times. That is the pitcher that I expect in 2011, but in the back of my mind, I know that there is the risk of him completely falling apart and going toward that worst case.

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The Giants do really well at engaging with their fans on Twitter with one of the strongest presences in the social media square of any team.



Bryan Srabian, the Director of Social Media for the Giants, has done a great job of engaging the fan base and giving something extra and special for the fans who follow the team.

I had the pleasure of meeting him and he is a really nice guy who looks out for the fans. If you are on Twitter, you should follow the . If not, you should really consider joining because following along with other fans while the game is on adds a whole new dimension to watching the game.

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If you're on Twitter, you should definitely follow . If you're not, you should really consider joining; lots of good stuff going on there.

In the latest issue of Sports Illustrated, which has the Spring Training previews for each teamm they also have a list of rookies to watch in 2011 and the Giants own Brandon Belt gets a nice shout out.

The Giants may have another Buster Posey, last year's NL Rookie of the Year. Belt, a fifth-round draft pick in 2009, is a 6'5", 210-pound, sweet-swinging lefty whom scouts liken to Will Clark. He was drafted in the 11th round by the Braves four years ago as a pitcher (he opted to go to Texas), but he has bloomed at the plate after revamping his stance and swing with the Giants. A slick fielder, he led the minor leagues in OPS (1.075) in 2010, and if he doesn't begin this year launching balls into McCovey Cove, he should force an early-season promotion and make an instant impact the way Posey did after his May call-up last year.

I hope that the guys at SI are right and that he does have an immediate impact on the scale of Posey. His numbers last year were simply off the charts and I think Giants fans would simply be spoiled with the rich talent that has come up through the minors the last few years after so many years of neglect and busted prospects.

While you are here, check out some of the other stuff that I have written about Mr. Top Prospect Brandon Belt; the scouting report and why he may stay in AAA for financial reasons.

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It has been a while since we had our last Bowkermania! update. Ladies and gentlemen, lets take a look at the projections for the sites favorite Giants prospect castoff.

Most of the projection systems are pretty high on being able to play at a major league average or better level.

Bill James is very bullish (but he is bullish on everyone it seems), giving him a triple slash of .276/.338/.469. With these numbers, he would be an above average outfielder.

PETCOA shares the optimism, projecting a .268/.342/.457 line, which would be fairly comparable to a league average right fielder.

Zips isn't quite as high as the other two, coming in with a .264/.329/.430 line, which would still be good enough for 102 OPS+, which is right around league average.

Marcel, which doesn't take into account his minor league Babe Ruth status, is the outlier of the group, projecting a .242/.300/.392 line and another season toiling in the minors, with a cup of coffee in September when the Pirates are 25 games back.

The projections are all pretty good, but the time to prove that he isn't just a AAA lifer is running out for Bowker, who is competing for the last outfield spot on the Pirates. Maybe another spring like last year can get him another chance to prove himself.

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The Giants Spring Training slate kicks off today against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Scottsdale Stadium. It's a beautiful thing and it marks the beginning of the 2011 season, but as fans, we must resist the temptation to put too much weight on these games.

The exhibition schedule is 36 games long, with a bunch of players sharing time, working on new things, and getting back into the swing of the baseball grind. It's not the time to make drastic decisions based on little information just because there are some games going on.

What a player does in 30 something games and maybe a hundred at-bats doesn't tell you a whole lot. A player could ride a lucky streak and look like an All-Star only to fall flat on their face once the real season starts and the games actually count.

You could point to Spring Training all-star last year with (I still have a man crush on him and that worries some people), who led the Giants in hitting and looked like he was the second coming of . You could look at the struggles of last season in the Spring that caused so many people to overreact and proclaim him done, only to see him fix his mechanical flaw and come back even stronger.

If goes 0-3 with 3 strikeouts, don't proclaim him a bust. If hits .400 with 6 homers, don't point to all that cycling he did in the offseason as the reason he is no longer broken (actually, if he does do that, try to sell that story to another GM).

Spring Training is a time for hope and optimism, but what we shouldn't do is look at a breakout in the Spring or a bad showing as the last word on a player. The short window of exhibition games is, at best, a supplement to analyzing what a player has done up to this point in their career and not a replacement.

Lets enjoy the Spring and the return of baseball but always remember to take the results with a grain of salt.

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Every time I turn to watch or read something about baseball, the new look Phillies pitching staff is all over the screen. I think to myself, hmm, did the Giants not beat the same Phillies staff a year ago? (Minus , who they also beat twice in the world series).

There is no doubt that they're a very good staff and if they were all wearing the Orange and Black, I would be a very happy guy. But, really, are they any better then the Giants pitchers? If you look at both rotations one through five, I think that you have to say they're pretty even.

In no particular order:

1. vs :

In the playoffs last season, they split the series, but they both pitched very well. Both of these pitchers are elite guys and they have won the last three N.L. Cy Young awards.

2. Cliff Lee vs :

Both of theses guys are very good as well. , the younger of the two, has emerged from the shadow of his low run support days and is among the better pitchers in the game (even if he causes debate about luck vs skill on HR prevention). Cliff Lee is a very solid pitcher during the regular season and seems to find another level in the postseason and is the darling of the sabermetric crowd.

3. vs :

Mad Bum really came out of his shell and pitched like a seasoned veteran in Game 4 of the Fall Classic and I cannot wait to see the rest of his days with the Giants. On the other side, is no pushover, a veteran who can still deal with the best in the majors.

4. vs Johnathan Sanchez:

These two lefties have similar type styles; here is some junk, try and hit it. Hamels is a bit more consistent, but both of them, on any other team, could be a two or a very solid three.

5. vs :

Both of these guys pitched in Oakland and now pitch in the National League. I have not given up on and might be moving from Philly to another team soon. Both of these guys are very solid 5th starters.

Scott wrote earlier looking at the projected similarities in the two teams and also about the idea that the Phillies, as a team, are head and shoulders better than the Giants. I am a little more (or little less) optimistic than him on this case.

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The latest Giants podcast from the Crazy Crabbers, we are joined by and breakdown the division rivals for the upcoming 2011 season.


The quick breakdown; the Diamondbacks bullpen is not good, but they have a bunch of young talent on offense, which is led by .

The Rockies are a team to worry about, but there are questions about their supporting cast behind , , and .

The Dodgers are a mess and all of us don't have a lot sympathy for them. They have some solid talent in , , and , but they have some glaring holes (just look at left field) and a bunch of questions that makes them hard to project.

Finally, the Padres, who got a little bit of the short end of the stick on time, but they are rebuilding and will score 300-400 runs all season. Suck on that, .

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It is pretty easy to love as a Giants fan. He is the longest tenured player on the team, he is a very humble guy, and, above all else, he is an awesome player.

He may be overshadowed by in the national media, but Cain is still a hero to Giants fans everywhere. Cain has been the rock that anchors the Giants pitching staff. He's nearly a lock to give the team 200 or more quality innings and give the Giants a chance to win and I don't expect that to change this season.

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

Year	ERA	W	L	IP	H	HR	BB	K
2011 Projection	3.27	14	9	217	183	21	68	178
Best Case	2.61	16	8	240	220	25	81	220
Worst Case	3.92	11	11	180	146	16	54	130

I will keep this short and sweet. I expect good things from this season.

He is a model of consistency in giving quality innings, with the level of quality rising the last few years, as he has honed his craft. He is a savvy veteran but still one of the youngest pitchers in the starting rotation. I see few reasons why he should regress away from his career norms. It's entirely possible that he could continue his march toward being one of the best pitchers in the National League.

The best case would put him in the conversation for Cy Young consideration and the regular projection gets him in the discussion as an All-Star (with the added benefit of Bruce Bochy picking the reserves this season).

The worst case here would be a disappointment, but would still be superior to more then 60% of pitchers in the majors. I don't imagine this happening without some truly awful luck or an injury.

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I am optimistic that Lincecum will go back to one of the top handful of pitchers in baseball and it's possible that he could regain the title of the best in the game, but there are still nagging worries to address.

Last year, he had the lowest K/9 since his rookie year and some might see a downward trend there. Over the last 3 years, his K/9 rate has declined from 10.51 in 2008 to 10.42 in 2009 and 9.79 in 2010. This could be a concern, but at 9.79, he's still an elite strikeout pitcher and, with the amount of innings he pitched, it was good enough to lead the league in strikeouts. In addition, if you include the playoffs into his pitching line, it increases to 9.96, which is still a drop but much more in line with the rest of his career.

The loss of velocity on the fastball is still a concern, but much less than it was when it was an obsession in the middle of last season. In his last starts of the season, things started trending up again (which was the opposite of what had happened in his other big league seasons where he lost velocity as the season wore on). This calmed many fears. We should have a better idea of where things are once he gets back into the swing of things at the beginning of the season.

The other thing that makes me feel better is if you exclude his rough August and add in his playoff performance, you see a line that is much closer to what we have come to expect from Timmy. Yes, it's kind of cherry picking, but it shows that he wasn't bad last year by any stretch of the imagination. He would have gone 20-6 with a 2.79 ERA with 247 strikeouts in 222 innings and very well could have beaten Roy Halladay for Cy Young #3.

Tim Lincecum doesn't cause too much worry from me, as I expect him to continue to do what he does and, if everything falls into place, he could be in line for some more hardware. The worst case is he has a season like 2010 where he was good enough to lead the team to a World Series championship.

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The RBI is a hallowed stat for traditional baseball fans. It is said that driving in runs is an important skill and that without proven run producers, a team will fall on its face offensively. The modern take is that an RBI is due more to lineup placement and the ability of the guys in front of the batter to get on base and not a good descriptive statistic for how good a player is.

To test this, had a post on this subject back in August and it made me want to look at how the Giants fared in this category. They looked at players with 100 or more RBIs in a season and then sorted by lowest Wins Above Replacement and there were some real bad seasons in there.

For some of these guys, they were "producing runs" but costing their teams quite a bit and probably didn't deserve the playing time that they were given.


Some of these guys were just plain bad, so how have the Giants done? Much better. Here is the San Francisco Giants top 10 worst seasons with 100+ RBIs:

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