Monday, February 28, 2011

Jonathan Sanchez 2011 Projection



Next in line for the Giants 2011 projections is the newly minted #2 starter, .

Most projections that you will see give you one line of stats. I know my limitations, so I will gave you that line of stats, but also a best case and a worst case scenario, so you can get an idea of my general range for that player.

Without further ado, the projection:

Year ERA W L IP H HR BB K
2011 Projection 3.39 12 10 184 149 20 91 185
Best Case 2.72 14 8 221 179 24 95 235
Worst Case 4.07 9 12 148 119 16 110 125

Sanchez is a frustrating guy to project. At times he is absolutely unhittable and looks like the second coming of . At other times, he can't find the strike zone and you wonder if he is worth the headache.

If you've followed the Giants, this shouldn't come as a surprise to you, as this is the main complaint lodged against him. Last season, I wrote a little bit about his up's and down's and I imagine that this season will be filled with them as well.

If he can get a little more control and not lose the mental focus, he could have ace type stuff. Lefties with strikeout stuff don't come around that often. Since 2000, only 13 left-handed pitchers have thrown 150+ while striking out at least a batter an inning. One of them is Sanchez, who has accomplished this the last 2 seasons.

If he puts things together for the whole season, the ceiling is a Cy Young. He has the talent that's never been in question. More realistically, he is a solid above average pitcher who will be very frustrating to watch at times. That is the pitcher that I expect in 2011, but in the back of my mind, I know that there is the risk of him completely falling apart and going toward that worst case.

If you're on Twitter, you should definitely follow . If you're not, you should really consider joining; lots of good stuff going on there.

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