Don't look now, but the Giants have a win streak going, everybody.
After a rather pathetic streak of baseball where the team lost 11 of 14 games and averaged just 2.21 runs per game, winning two in a row feels like a major accomplishment. Hopefully the team has some confidence because they will need it going into a very tough four game series against the Atlanta Braves.
The projections don't like the Giants chances (surprise, surprise; the offense is the cause) to win this series, but getting a split at the least seems like a possibility. I will take the odds of a split/win at 53% every time and ignore that they have a 47% chance of losing the series outright.
The odds for each game and the series:
Braves
|
Giants
|
|
Game 1
|
54%
|
46%
|
Game 2
|
66%
|
34%
|
Game 3
|
59%
|
41%
|
Game 4
|
60%
|
40%
|
Sweep
|
12.8%
|
2.5%
|
3 of 4
|
34.6%
|
15.3%
|
Split
|
34.7%
|
34.7%
|
1 of 4
|
15.3%
|
34.6%
|
0 of 4
|
2.5%
|
12.8%
|
Win Series
|
47%
|
18%
|
Split
|
35%
|
35%
|
Lose Series
|
18%
|
47%
|
The Braves have two guys without much of a track record going in and , so rather than using the FIP from there short stints in the Majors ,I have decided to use their ZIPS projections rest of season FIP.
In addition, for this series, I have made the addition of adding in a defense variable. The effect is pretty minor, costing the Braves just 0.19 runs in each game and the Giants getting a boost of 0.06 runs.
This has the makings of a very tough test for the Giants but hopefully the team can find a way to score some runs and get at least a split here.
Become a and follow on Twitter. There is lots of good stuff going on there. Sign up for our free newsletter!
No comments:
Post a Comment