Monday, August 15, 2011

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Braves




Don't look now, but the Giants have a win streak going, everybody.

After a rather pathetic streak of baseball where the team lost 11 of 14 games and averaged just 2.21 runs per game, winning two in a row feels like a major accomplishment. Hopefully the team has some confidence because they will need it going into a very tough four game series against the Atlanta Braves.

The projections don't like the Giants chances (surprise, surprise; the offense is the cause) to win this series, but getting a split at the least seems like a possibility. I will take the odds of a split/win at 53% every time and ignore that they have a 47% chance of losing the series outright.

The odds for each game and the series:

Braves
Giants
Game 1
54%
46%
Game 2
66%
34%
Game 3
59%
41%
Game 4
60%
40%
Sweep
12.8%
2.5%
3 of 4
34.6%
15.3%
Split
34.7%
34.7%
1 of 4
15.3%
34.6%
0 of 4
2.5%
12.8%
Win Series
47%
18%
Split
35%
35%
Lose Series
18%
47%

The Braves have two guys without much of a track record going in and , so rather than using the FIP from there short stints in the Majors ,I have decided to use their ZIPS projections rest of season FIP.

In addition, for this series, I have made the addition of adding in a defense variable. The effect is pretty minor, costing the Braves just 0.19 runs in each game and the Giants getting a boost of 0.06 runs.

This has the makings of a very tough test for the Giants but hopefully the team can find a way to score some runs and get at least a split here.

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