Friday, June 18, 2010

40 Percent Mark Check Up

The 2010 season is 40% done if this were a baseball game we would be in the top of the 4th with one out. There is certainly a lot of baseball left to play but at this point we have learned quite a bit about this team.
Rk Tm W L W-L% GB R RA Rdiff pythWL
vEast
vCent vWest Inter Home Road ExInn 1Run ≥.500 <.500
1 38 28 .576 --- 4.1 3.3 0.8 39-27
10-9
9-4 14-11 5-4 21-15 17-13 6-4 13-9 21-20 17-8
2 38 28 .576 --- 4.7 4.5 0.2 34-32
4-9
14-10 18-5 2-4 23-13 15-15 5-2 15-7 20-16 18-12
3 37 28 .569 0.5 4.3 3.5 0.8 39-26
10-5
14-5 8-14 5-4 24-12 13-16 5-4 11-12 14-19 23-9
4 34 32 .515 4.0 4.5 3.9 0.7 37-29
11-8
3-8 14-13 6-3 19-12 15-20 4-4 9-13 17-15 17-17
5 26 41 .388 12.5 4.7 5.8 -1.1 27-40
6-6
9-11 9-20 2-4 17-16 9-25 2-4 6-10 19-32 7-9

Provided by :
Generated 6/18/2010.

At the moment before the days games begin the Giants are 37-28, in third place and 0.5 games out of first place. They are under performing their expected win/loss pathagorean record by two games while tying the Padres for the best run differential in the division.

The big thing that jumps at you from the standings is the Giants record agains teams that are better than .500, this season they have .719 winning percentage against the best teams in the league while manageing a winning percentage of only .424 against the bottom teams. I am not sure what to make of this perhaps they are playing at the level of the competitioin, but they have the best mark in the league against winning teams. That would be good news for the playoffs if this isn't just some anomoly of luck that will even out over the course of the season.

If they maintain the same pace they will be a 92 win team which would hopefully be good enough to get into the playoffs. It would also be the best record that the team has posted since the 100 win team of 2003.


The season has had quite a few ups and downs this season. As you can see from one of my favorite charts the Giants over their last 20 games have played very well adding 8 games between them and a .500 record, but if the past has any perdictive value there will be some more rough patches to make it through up a head.

I have created a companion for this graph as well that tracks all the teams in the division relative to first place.

Any thing above 0 means that the team is in 1st place every thing below is how many games back from 1st they are. There isn't a whole lot of analysis that can come out of this but it is a nice visual representation of the division race.

This years team has had trouble scoring runs so I created some graphs to have a look at how things have played out this season.

The first graph is the runs per scored for each game this season.


The black line is a 5 game moving average and the dotted red line is the season average of 4.3 runs per game.

This is an interesting graph but there doesn't seem to be a whole lot to glean from it. The rise and falls match up pretty close to the peaks and valley's that you can see in the games above .500 graph, but that is to be expected as runs and wins are highly correlated.

The next graph shows the run distribution of runs scored and runs allowed.


This graph is pretty interesting. When you look at the league as a whole the graph will be much more normally distributed with the peak around 5.5 runs but for the Giants this season the magic number has been 6 runs which they have scored 15 times. The next closest is 5 runs with 8 occurances and then 1 and 2 runs each with frequencies of 7. After 6 runs there is a large drop off with only a hand full of really high scoring games. This is a fairly odd distribution as the peak is realitivly far from the average of 4.3 runs.

For the runs allowed the peak is at 2 runs per game and is follows a much more typical distribution. From this you can definitly see how good the Giants pitching has been this season for the most part scoring a lot of runs on this team has not been easy and is a rare occurance.

Checking up on the players:

Pitchers:
The piching has been great this season. The staff lead by Lincecum and Cain had dominate stretches. got off to a great start and has pitched very well this season and is having his best season with the Giants. has to be the best number 4 starter in the league who has really excelled this season and deserves much better than his 5 and 5 record. The one sore spot has been who is not a very good pitcher away from AT&T park, hopefully his days in the rotation are numbered and the spot will be 's for the stretch run.
Rk Age W L W-L% ERA GS IP H R ER BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1 26 7 2 .778 3.11 14 92.2 76 33 32 37 106 139 1.219 7.4 3.6 10.3 2.86
2 25 6 4 .600 2.05 13 92.1 66 23 21 28 65 210 1.018 6.4 2.7 6.3 2.32
3 32 7 2 .778 3.10 13 87.0 73 31 30 34 58 139 1.230 7.6 3.5 6.0 1.71
4 27 5 5 .500 2.78 13 81.0 59 29 25 34 77 155 1.148 6.6 3.8 8.6 2.26
5 31 3 5 .375 5.52 11 58.2 53 36 36 35 41 78 1.500 8.1 5.4 6.3 1.17

Provided by :
Generated 6/18/2010.

The Giants bullpen has caused a few heart palpatations this season but it is an excellent collection of power arms. has been a bit of a disapointment this year but his numbers from last year were definitly inflated and were not going to be sustainable. has had a few pitches that were mistakes that really cost him but other thatn that has been one of the best guys on the staff with his nasty frisbe slider. New comer is a flame throwing monster and I am not sure why the A's let him go for nothing. Lastly has been pure awesome and while he has walked the high wire a few times in his saves he has had a special season.
Pos Age W L W-L% ERA G SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
CL 28 2 0 1.000 2.15 27 18 29.1 26 7 7 1 10 41 202 1.227 3.1 12.6 4.10

RP
30 1 1 .500 0.87 13 2 10.1 6 1 1 0 6 18 510 1.161 5.2 15.7 3.00
RP 27 2 3 .400 2.77 27 0 26.0 18 9 8 4 5 24 157 0.885 1.7 8.3 4.80
RP 25 2 0 1.000 3.80 27 0 23.2 20 11 10 1 17 21 115 1.563 6.5 8.0 1.24
RP 36 0 2 .000 3.09 27 1 23.1 22 8 8 1 5 12 141 1.157 1.9 4.6 2.40
RP 31 2 3 .400 4.57 23 2 21.2 23 12 11 2 16 18 95 1.800 6.6 7.5 1.13

Provided by :
Generated 6/18/2010.

Hitters:

There are a few really bright spots in the lineup at this point in the season and a few spots that I want to take a steel scrub brush to so that I never have to see swing at a slider that is 4 feet outside again.

The bright spots this season have to be who is destroying the ball while playing defense that is much better than adervtised, who is putting together the best season by a NL short stop, who has figured out how to be awesome and is among the best leadoff hitters in the game right now, who I wasn't sold on but it is easy to see how he won a batting title and he seems to have more paitence this season then he did in the past and finaly who exploded on to the scene in his first few games in the majors.

The not so bright spots this season have been really bad. Aaron Rownad is in a 6 week long slump, has lost all of hits power and hasn't made up for it with increased ability to get on base and for some reason hasn't had surgery on his injured wrist and is clogging up a roster spot. These are not pretty but Bruce Bochy is finally taking these guys out of the lineup on a regular basis.


Rk Pos Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1 C 35 53 178 16 46 6 0 3 17 0 12 17 .258 .313 .343 .656 73
2 1B 33 63 220 37 67 15 2 11 36 3 33 26 .305 .396 .541 .937 144
3 2B 32 26 99 14 34 7 0 0 14 0 12 16 .343 .404 .414 .818 116
4 SS 30 63 218 33 63 11 1 11 42 1 23 37 .289 .355 .500 .855 122
5 3B 23 64 255 36 72 17 2 6 27 2 24 34 .282 .343 .435 .778 103
6 LF 35 26 93 9 18 3 0 1 10 0 9 16 .194 .279 .258 .537 43
7 CF 32 46 183 20 41 8 2 6 23 1 7 39 .224 .267 .388 .655 70
8 RF 26 57 125 20 33 8 1 1 9 4 13 17 .264 .345 .368 .713 88
9 OF 32 57 188 30 55 20 3 3 19 11 31 39 .293 .395 .479 .874 129
10 SS 33 23 86 9 28 3 0 1 11 3 7 14 .326 .372 .395 .768 103
13 C 30 30 68 12 19 5 0 4 9 1 5 15 .279 .338 .529 .867 124
14 1B 23 17 64 8 22 4 1 1 7 0 3 5 .344 .382 .484 .867 127
16 LF 33 11 31 5 11 3 0 2 5 0 3 6 .355 .400 .645 1.045 170
17 1B * 26 40 29 6 8 4 0 1 4 0 4 8 .276 .364 .517 .881 129

Provided by :
Generated 6/18/2010.

This ladies and gentlemen this is your 2010 Giants, they have had sucess following their winning formula great pitching followed up with timely hitting. They are in the thick of things and the lineup and offense is starting to come together.

There is still a ways to go but I think that the team has done well over this first stretch of the season and looks to be getting stronger and understanding what the strengths of the team are.

No comments:

Post a Comment