It is a slow week transaction and rumor wise so let's spice things up by taking a look at some far too early projections of the final standings of 2011. The early returns show that the defending champion Giants have a 30.6% chance of making the playoffs.
Replacement Level Yankees using the Cairo projection system that is there creation along with the MLB Depth Charts simulated the 2011 season 10,000 times the NL West looks like a crap shoot with Colorado the early favorites followed by the Giants, Dodgers and Padres.
Here is the full standings:
Date | 12/28/2010 | |||||||||
Iterations | 10000 | |||||||||
American League | ||||||||||
TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
Red Sox | 98.1 | 63.9 | 856 | 690 | 54.6% | 15.6% | 70.2% | 9.1 | 38 | -54 |
Yankees | 89.1 | 72.9 | 835 | 740 | 23.2% | 21.7% | 44.9% | -5.9 | -24 | 47 |
Rays | 87.1 | 74.9 | 707 | 640 | 17.9% | 18.7% | 36.6% | -8.9 | -95 | -9 |
Blue Jays | 74.1 | 87.9 | 693 | 737 | 2.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | -10.9 | -62 | 9 |
Orioles | 70.1 | 91.9 | 723 | 813 | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.1 | 110 | 28 |
TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
Twins | 85.7 | 76.3 | 752 | 715 | 33.3% | 6.2% | 39.5% | -8.3 | -29 | 44 |
White Sox | 84.5 | 77.5 | 735 | 711 | 28.4% | 6.2% | 34.5% | -3.5 | -17 | 7 |
Tigers | 84.0 | 78.0 | 727 | 712 | 27.5% | 4.6% | 32.0% | 3.0 | -24 | -31 |
Indians | 73.9 | 88.1 | 728 | 802 | 8.2% | 2.7% | 10.8% | 4.9 | 82 | 50 |
Royals | 66.9 | 95.1 | 678 | 815 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.9% | -0.1 | 2 | -30 |
TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
Rangers | 89.2 | 72.8 | 746 | 673 | 50.1% | 4.5% | 54.6% | -0.8 | -41 | -14 |
Athletics | 82.1 | 79.9 | 678 | 667 | 26.1% | 4.3% | 30.4% | 1.1 | 15 | 41 |
Angels | 77.9 | 84.1 | 665 | 690 | 15.5% | 3.2% | 18.7% | -2.1 | -16 | -12 |
Mariners | 72.2 | 89.8 | 635 | 703 | 8.4% | 2.5% | 10.9% | 11.2 | 122 | 5 |
National League | ||||||||||
TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
Phillies | 96.1 | 65.9 | 754 | 618 | 54.5% | 11.0% | 65.5% | -0.9 | -18 | -22 |
Braves | 88.5 | 73.5 | 754 | 690 | 26.6% | 13.3% | 39.9% | -2.5 | 16 | 61 |
Mets | 76.6 | 85.4 | 675 | 702 | 7.1% | 4.5% | 11.6% | -2.4 | 19 | 50 |
Marlins | 77.3 | 84.7 | 679 | 708 | 8.7% | 5.0% | 13.7% | -2.7 | -40 | -9 |
Nationals | 72.4 | 89.6 | 659 | 733 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 13.4 | -51 | -141 |
TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
Cardinals | 90.2 | 71.8 | 746 | 676 | 35.0% | 12.0% | 47.0% | 4.2 | 10 | 35 |
Brewers | 87.2 | 74.8 | 698 | 650 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 36.7% | 10.2 | -52 | -154 |
Reds | 85.5 | 76.5 | 723 | 689 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 31.7% | -5.5 | -67 | 4 |
Cubs | 79.3 | 82.7 | 742 | 761 | 10.5% | 6.3% | 16.8% | 4.3 | 57 | -6 |
Pirates | 67.7 | 94.3 | 671 | 808 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.3% | -6.3 | 28 | 38 |
Astros | 65.8 | 96.2 | 604 | 732 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.8 | -32 | -36 |
TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
Rockies | 85.9 | 76.1 | 768 | 732 | 31.7% | 5.9% | 37.6% | 2.9 | -2 | 15 |
Giants | 84.2 | 77.8 | 699 | 667 | 24.1% | 6.6% | 30.6% | -7.8 | 2 | 84 |
Dodgers | 83.3 | 78.7 | 677 | 659 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 27.5% | 3.3 | 10 | -33 |
Padres | 81.2 | 80.8 | 647 | 652 | 17.7% | 5.0% | 22.6% | -8.8 | -18 | 71 |
Diamondbacks | 73.8 | 88.2 | 690 | 757 | 6.4% | 1.9% | 8.3% | 3.8 | -30 | -25 |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
The calendar has not flipped to 2011, rosters are not set, there are still free agents to sign, pitchers and catchers are yet to report but it is never too early to think about the pennant race.
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