Last week, I wrote about the cost benefit analysis of the possible trade of and my rough calculation was that Reyes is worth about $25 million to the Giants and the Giants top pitching prospect was worth about the same.
After I wrote that, Julian from Splashing Pumpkins left a link to some tools to help analyze trades and value of prospects. I wanted to try to use these tools to get a better idea of what this trade would mean for the Giants.
First up; what the Giants would get. es has already accumulated 2.9 WAR and the first go round I simply extrapolated that for the rest of the season. This probably overstated his value so this time I used the ZIPS rest of the season projections as the baseline for determining his rest of the season WAR.
This gave us a 3.9 WAR for a value of $18 million. The remainder on his contract is about $7.8 million and I assumed that he will be a Type A Free Agent so that is added in at the bottom as well. In addition, I also gave him a bonus for the bump in expected revenue for making the playoffs with him on the team.
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Jose Reyes
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||||
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Year
|
Sal (M)
|
WAR
|
Val (M)
|
Net (M)
|
|
2011
|
$7.8
|
3.9
|
$18.0
|
$10.2
|
|
FA Picks
|
$5.0
|
|||
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Playoff Revenue
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$2.3
|
|||
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Total
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$7.8
|
3.9
|
$25.2
|
$17.4
|
The final net value for Reyes ended up at $17.4 million for the rest of the season.
I did the something similar for but with a number of assumptions. First, I assumed that he would make the majors in 2013 and once he made the majors, he would have an expected WAR of 1.575. I came to that number by assuming the following probabilities for his future performance:
|
WAR
|
Probability
|
xWAR
|
|
0
|
0.25
|
0
|
|
5
|
0.0375
|
0.1875
|
|
4
|
0.075
|
0.3
|
|
3
|
0.1125
|
0.3375
|
|
2
|
0.225
|
0.45
|
|
1
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
1.575
|
Then, I took this number and plugged it into the same calculator as the one used in the Reyes analysis. For his team controlled years, I put in a league minimum salary of $400k and estimated his arbitration salary at 40%, 60%, and 80% of FA value in their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd years, respectively.
After that, I also put everything into present value terms using a discount rate of 10%, which is seen in the column NPV.
With this tool, Wheeler's net present value to the Giants is $19.4 million, which is still $2 million more than what Reyes would be worth to the team.
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Zach Wheeler
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Year
|
Sal (M)
|
xWAR
|
Val (M)
|
Net (M)
|
NPV
|
|
2011
|
$0.0
|
0.0
|
$0.0
|
$0.0
|
$0.0
|
|
2012
|
$0.0
|
0.0
|
$0.0
|
$0.0
|
$0.0
|
|
2013
|
$0.4
|
1.6
|
$7.5
|
$7.1
|
$5.3
|
|
2014
|
$0.4
|
1.6
|
$7.5
|
$7.1
|
$4.9
|
|
2015
|
$0.4
|
1.6
|
$7.5
|
$7.1
|
$4.4
|
|
2016
|
$3.0
|
1.6
|
$7.5
|
$4.5
|
$2.5
|
|
2017
|
$4.5
|
1.6
|
$7.5
|
$3.0
|
$1.5
|
|
2018
|
$6.0
|
1.6
|
$7.6
|
$1.6
|
$0.8
|
|
FA Picks
|
$0.0
|
||||
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Total
|
$4.2
|
9.5
|
$45.0
|
$40.8
|
$19.4
|
With this tool, Wheeler's net present value to the Giants is $19.4 million, which is still $2 million more than what Reyes would be worth to the team.
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