Friday, April 20, 2012

Projecting the Series: Giants vs. Mets


The Giants are pretty much back on track after getting swept to start the season, they have series wins in the last three that they have played and the pitching staff which had let them down has been the strength of the team (with the notable exception of Tim Lincecum). The bats have cooled down a bit but the team is still averaging over 4 runs a game on the season.

Now the Giants embark on their first east coast road trip with a four game series in New York and then a stop in Cincinnati for three more. Hopefully they can keep up their winning ways and come back with a winning record.

Again the data going into the projection model is based on ZiPS projections and also the current seasons statistics but it is still heavily weighted toward the projections. At this point, I think that May will be when the current stats might get more and more weight but we will see when the time comes.

So here are the probable pitching match-ups courtesy of MLB.com:

Jon Niese vs. Barry Zito
Mike Pelfrey vs. Ryan Vogelsong
Dillon Gee vs. Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana vs. Madison Bumgarner

Odds:
Mets
Giants
Total Runs
Game 1
50%
50%
7.3
Game 2
51%
49%
7.1
Game 3
36%
64%
6.7
Game 4
49%
51%
6.3
Sweep
4.5%
8.0%
3 of 4
21.5%
28.5%
Split
37.5%
37.5%
1 of 4
28.5%
21.5%
0 of 4
8.0%
4.5%
Win Series
26%
37%
Split
37%
37%
Lose Series
37%
26%
  
Predicting over under: Last series I only was able to take the over under on two games because my Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay projection was exactly what the spread was. I did post here that if I was the person making the bet that I would have taken the over and it would have been the correct choice, but for the sake of this experiment I won't count that as a correct guess (unless things get really ugly down the road and I need this to help save some face).

Season record 5-6.

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